The way that I understand The Law of Big Numbers (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Law_of_large_numbers) is that if have X items and you pick one of at random then put it back and pick again at random and do this Y times where Y is a very very big number then you should have picked each item about 1/X% of the time. In other words if you the lottery has 100 balls and they pick every night for forever then each ball should come up about 1/100th of them time. You may be thinking that wrong, random is random.
Picture Credit:www.dilbert.com
Well maybe random is random, but if a number never comes up its not truly random. All numbers must really come up nearly equal number of time to truly be random. So back to the lottery example, does all numbers in the lottery come up an equal number of times. Well lets look at the Georgia Lottery's Mega Millions (http://www.georgialottery.com/stc/games/megaMillions.jsp) game.
Click to enlarge
The above graph shows the frequency that each lotto ball for that past three years or so. Each graph has a horizontal line showing where each bar should come to if every ball came up an equal number of times. Just by glancing over the graph you can tell that the lottery up till now hasn't been 100% even. This makes you think that some balls are now due to come up to make every thing be truly random. So if you believe that the lottery really is a game of chance you would want to know what numbers have came up the least amount of times.
Now before we go to much farther lets consider the other side of the cone for a few minutes. What if the lottery really isn't random. There could be stuff to cause this. For example the number 8 ball must have more paint on it then the number 1 ball because it takes more paint to paint and 8 then it does a 1. This extra paint could make the number 8 ball slightly heaver the number 1 ball and thus come up slightly more often. Another possibility could be when the host of the lottery drawing turns the ball so to face the camera oil form her finger or possible food residue on her hand gets on the ball making it heaver. If this is the case the lottery isn't truly random and you should pick numbers that come up more often.
Which ever way you believe the lottery works you want as much historical data as possible to make your choice on what lottery numbers to pick. This being the case it is not helpful to make all your calculations once and pick those numbers every time; you the most up to date numbers possible because trends may change or emerge with new numbers. Below is a python script presented as a psp page that will download all of Georgia Lottery's Mega Million numbers since June 2005 (Mega Millions was around before June 2005 but on that date the changed the rules so that the highest ball that was possible was changed) till the present and calculate the 5 most winning white balls, that most winning Mega Ball, the 5 least winning white balls, and the least winning Mega Ball. The script is presented as a psp page so that you can pull the information down on your mobile phone when you are buying your lottery tickets.
View at demo of the script at http://www.jonlathem.com/python/lotto.psp. The top set is the least winning numbers and the bottom set is the most winning numbers. The last ball in each set is the money ball.
<html>
<body>
<%
from mod_python import apache
from urllib2 import urlopen
import re
MaxWhiteBall = 56
MaxMoneyBall = 46
p = re.compile (r'^"\d+/\d+/\d+","(\d\d)-(\d\d)-(\d\d)-(\d\d)-(\d\d) MB=(\d\d)"$')
f = urlopen ("http://www.georgialottery.com/serv/do/historyView?game=megaMillion&outputType=2&viewType=3&csvStartMonth=5&csvStartDay=22&csvStartYear=2005&csvEndMonth=11&csvEndDay=31&csvEndYear=2010")
WhiteBallFreqDict = {}.fromkeys(range (1, MaxWhiteBall+1), 0)
MoneyBallFreqDict = {}.fromkeys(range (1, MaxMoneyBall+1), 0)
for line in f:
m=p.match(line[:-2])
if m:
for i in range (5):
WhiteBallFreqDict[int (m.groups(1)[i])]+=1
MoneyBallFreqDict[int (m.groups(1)[5])]+=1
f.close()
MoneyBallPairs = (zip (MoneyBallFreqDict.values(), MoneyBallFreqDict.keys()))
MoneyBallPairs.sort()
WhiteBallPairs = (zip (WhiteBallFreqDict.values(), WhiteBallFreqDict.keys()))
WhiteBallPairs.sort()
req.write("Lossing: "+str(WhiteBallPairs[0][1]) + ", " + str(WhiteBallPairs[1][1]) + ", " + str(WhiteBallPairs[2][1]) + ", " +str(WhiteBallPairs[3][1]) + ", " + str(WhiteBallPairs[4][1]) + " Money Ball:" + str(MoneyBallPairs[0][1]) )
req.write("<br/>")
req.write("Winning: "+str(WhiteBallPairs[MaxWhiteBall-1][1]) + ", " + str(WhiteBallPairs[MaxWhiteBall-2][1]) + ", " + str(WhiteBallPairs[MaxWhiteBall-3][1]) + ", " + str(WhiteBallPairs[MaxWhiteBall-4][1]) + ", " + str(WhiteBallPairs[MaxWhiteBall-5][1]) + " Money Ball: " + str(MoneyBallPairs[MaxMoneyBall-1][1]))
%>
</body>
</html>
43 Comments
No. 1) Joe Zen on Oct 1 2008.
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I've thought along the same lines. I think the trick is making a sudoku game out of it. First find general 100% improbabilities of a number being picked in combo and such. Like we know there will never be a straight. Why? because they have to account for all the balls when changing sets and naturally they'll count them in order. Which means they are put in order so the chance of all five in order are eliminated because they are next to each other. Then you develop odds of not being drawn based on what you see on TV and the ball set test results. Going from there you do what you can to rule out as many numbers as possible. Then from that existing set rule out all improbable combinations. Then choose 11 lotto number sets that use all the numbers in the series. Use the same megaball on all, and then the megaplier. In the end you'll still lose money but you have the best chance of a short term lead.'
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